/int/ - International

I'm low key expecting it to go down in 2029, but a lot of things could still happen this year that could avert it. Most likely flashpoints: - Taiwan - Baltics - Turkey going east (they have been inshoring absolutely everything. you don't do that for fun) - some bullshit, vaguely triggered by deglobalization, that nobody saw coming. When any of these kicks off, the others are going to start as well. Mostly because the powers that could put a check on the respective situations will be occupied fighting their own wars.

>>9565 Ukraine is the biggest flashpoint. Taiwan is already "solving" itself, all large players are building their own semiconductor plants, once that's complete enough Taiwan will be up for grabs. What worries me the most is so many people thinking that "those other people" finally have to be thought a lesson and one has to be freed of them. Just like before the other World Wars. And it's not getting better.

No. Only possible flashpoint for a really major war in the following decade or so is Taiwan, and even then I'm still leaning against it happening. By that I mean an open Chinese-US war specifically; Taiwan might still get invaded without it escalating to that point. What really does seem to be almost inevitable is a lot more civil unrest. In Europe yes, but Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Indonesia show even the somewhat peaceful third world countries are already somewhat ahead in that trend. Anyone who believes in WW3 or whatever needs to explain exactly which sides would be fighting. >>9565 Russia wasted lots of its Soviet stocks and willing manpower in the last 3 years. Putin has also showed himself very wary of any major mobilizing effort due to fears of destabilization. Russia is not going to go on any further major military adventures for at least 5 more years at minimum even if the Ukraine war ended today, least of all against NATO, even if they could roll up the Baltics quite easily. Turkey will expand its influence in the Arab world and potentially involve itself in various conflagrations there like it did in Syria and Libya, but its hard to see how this turns into anything close to a world war. US has MENA fatigue and little appetite for involvement beyond ensuring Israel's safety and keeping the oil flowing through Hormuz and the Red sea. >>9566 Chips are only a part of why China wants Taiwan. Part is ideological (One China) and the other strategic (you don't tolerate your biggest global rival having a major outpost so close to your shore unless you REALLY have to).

>>9567 Hmmm... Chips

Probably not(things can always escalate out of control) Russia was never that strong and Ukraine shows that. Sure, they are probably going to win but the fact it's taking them this long and costing this much does not bode well for them in a potential a war with Poland, let alone Europe. China relies heavily on global trade for energy imports and for it's export based economy. They would be incredibly vulnerable to any disruption in that and a war would cut them off completely.

The most obvious answer is yes, because of some shit Israeli kicks off. Look at Doha today. Or their risky attack on Iran that could've caused WWIII. These fuckers more than anyone will destroy us all.

>>9570 I should say with my government's support.

>>9564 the world currently is incapable of a real world war. so the most i expect is repetition of history as farce this time around

>>9573 > is incapable of a real world war ICBMs didn't exist for the first two world wars. If we have another one it could be the total end. All because of some mental ill retards.

>>9569 >Russia was never that strong and Ukraine shows that. Sure, they are probably going to win but the fact it's taking them this long and costing this much does not bode well for them in a potential a war with Poland, let alone Europe. Reminds me of 1941, where Hitler thought the same because of war with Finland.

>>9569 >China relies heavily on global trade for energy imports and for it's export based economy. They would be incredibly vulnerable to any disruption in that and a war would cut them off completely. i agree. war is only for losers. i dont think China or Turkey will start any wars. they are winning, things are going well for them. r*ssia started the war because it was losing, it wasnt producing anything and was drawning in corruption. i mean this was the situation in 2008 when r*ssia started its war against everyone, which is still ongoing

no the great war 1 + 2 was just europe and its colonies plus japan. europe doeant control shit anymore and cant even find the balls tonfifht russia

>>9566 If chip manufacturing was this Boolean thing that you either have or you don't, then Taiwan would've been overtaken years ago. It's more than China has been trying to catch up for years and Taiwan keeps being a few years ahead. It's constant progress and development that ensures Taiwanese superiority. If they decide to not invest in newer processes for a few years, then China could overtake. And I don't see China overtaking any time soon. Or any other country for that matter.

Chip manufacturing is quite a complex and global industry. There are imports from all over the world but most importantly the designs come from the USA and Japan and the Lithography machines come from the Netherlands. So even if China invaded Taiwan, the FABs somehow survived and all the workers stayed there and agreed to work for the CCP China still would be able to design new chips or make the Lithography machines for them and if they could then Taiwan would be irrelevant to them anyway.

>>9582 *chine still wouldn't

>>9582 It's much easier to make your own lithography machine if you can disassemble a working one. And at that point they have caught up with ASML, there's nothing to stop them from developing alongside rather than a few years behind them. I'm a hardware guy so I don't know too much about chip design and the worldwide capabilities. Is it true that it's a similar chase?

>>9584 There is far more than having an EUV machine to disassemble to being able to make their own, they already have if not literally that then the piecemeal equivalent of that many times over. That isn't to say that China isn't going to inevitably overtake and crush us like a bug on literally every single front within the next 5-10 years, but I am confident that not having an EUV machine to disassemble is not the bottleneck there. As for war, within a few years it will be clear enough even to the most stubborn in US leadership that the flip has happened and there is no contest anymore. You can't compete with a country that makes as many equivalent top-tech missiles in a month as you make in a decade (and can only make even those using their parts).

>>9566 >What worries me the most is so many people thinking that "those other people" finally have to be thought a lesson and one has to be freed of them. That's what always happens when a psychopathic aggressive tyrant rises up somewhere. Other people want to get rid of him and he thinks he needs to teach the other people a lesson for not liking him being an evil motherfucker messing with their shit.

>>9567 Chinks will want the Taiwan incursion to be as quiet as possible, but unless they can guarantee it to themselves, they won't do it, or back away once the public outcry is too stark. The way I look at it, is I think they'll miss their opportunity. Realistically they have a rather small window, which is around three to five years. If they miss that, it'll be very difficult to pull off competently. I don't think it'd ever turn into a global war. Russia is kinda stuck in Ukraine right now, as long as that's going on, they can't incur into the Baltics. The longer the war in Ukraine keeps happening, the less likely it becomes in the next ten years or so. There's also a window of opportunity that is kinda closing down. If the war ended in say 2026, it'll be at least till 2030, until they can reconstitute themselves for an attack on the Baltics, but that's also at a point where that window of opportunity is closing down. Tbh, I think we'll see more wars in the middle east flaring up again and again, with more and more Turkey's involvement. Ah, and about Ukraine and Russia, it's still very much amazing, how russia couldn't reform their economy to a full war-time economy to "steamroll" over Ukraine after the initial attacks have failed. I don't expect Ukraine to make a "come back" and retake their lands because they literally have zero economy of any kind right now, and there's pretty much no help from the outside, so that ain't gonna happen. I'll peter out over the next year or so, and then there's gonna be an end to hostilities, which russia is gonna try to "sell" as victory. I think it'll be a loss which is gonna take decades to fix, but it's not gonna turn into a world war as such, etc. What is a little more concerning, is that it'll turn into a perpetual semi-cold war with constant incursions from russia into europe, because NATO is at this point little more than a paper tiger...

>>9577 Things were going well for Russia. They had an economic surplus, lots of soft power in the west, several countries in the EU had active EU-exit movements, NATO was dying. All they'd have had to do was to wait for another brexit or two.

>>9566 >>9593 Baltics worry me mostly in the case of Russia achieving a white peace or better in the next 12 months or so. If they maintain their war economy, they will rebuild to something reasonably threatening by 2029. As long as they're stuck in Ukraine, the situation is pretty safe. > NATO is at this point little more than a paper tiger They really like to believe that in the russiasphere (and in Poland for some reason, Polish nationalists have really latched on to it). I don't think it's true anymore, but it doesn't matter if Russia starts another doomed war over it. I've been keeping tabs on what kind of kit EU militaries have been ordering. In Germany's case, a lot of equipment to fight a current-day ground war for example (tanks, IFVs, lots of SHORAD for drones which is the main innovation here). As opposed to, say, lots of air power in order to blitz to Moscow, or serious amounts of strategic air defense in case of nuclear war. The war they're preparing for is a protracted attritional/positional ground war much like the one in Ukraine. Maybe with some innovations in the maneuver warfare department to account for drones. The idea is not to invade Russia but rather let them come to Europe and break against their defenses. This conserves manpower on the EU side and reduces the risk of Russia becoming desperate enough to sling nukes. But of course this is only if it goes according to EU planners.

>>9582 It's not like Taiwan is the only place that manufactures microchips. It's merely the only place that manufactures bleeding edge microchips on sub-10nm processes. When you get to slightly less fancy processes (a few tens of nanometers), there is lots of capacity for that outside of Taiwan. Last I heard, Germany for example has like 20 chip fabs for things like microcontrollers, automotive supply etc. If Taiwan happens, we'll mostly just go back to older designs for less miniaturized processes.

Yes and the Israelites will exterminate the goats and tares

Nope singularity soon.

>>9593 > I think they'll miss their opportunity. Realistically they have a rather small window, which is around three to five years. wtf are you talking about what could possibly be the upper bound to this window lol

>>9593 >>9665 Wait do you mean Russia or China has that window

>>9665 Russia: NATO rearming to an extent where even Russia thinks it's a bad idea China: honestly idk, their demographics are terrible but there's a lot of them.

>>9570 Iran is isolated and its vaunted Axis of Resistance has been proven to be largely worthless aside from the Houthis. Israel can cause a lot of mess because its population has at least 1 standard deviation advantage in intelligence over the Ayyrabs around them and have (so far) the steadfast backing of the US, but there's little potential for it to draw in major outside powers in a way that would amount to a world war of any sort. Whatever Middle Eastern conflict that happens will remain regional, with US coming in to bomb whoever threatens oil prices but otherwise keeping a distance. Russia and China showed how much they care for Iran in the last bout of Israeli bombings (very little). No one else will seriously challenge the US in the near future. >>9576 Countries are able to put up a much more brutal fight when their population is convinced the war is existential and becomes willing to endure immense hardship to see it through. Neither Putin nor his heir will be able to sell any offensive campaign into the EU as the third Patriotic War that would result in that level of commitment. Especially not after the fiasco of his three-day SMO. His regime doesn't have anywhere near enough buy-in from the population to be able to impose the necessary sacrifices on the Russian population without destroying itself. >>9593 Russia dragging its feet in properly mobilizing for war is very revealing of Putin's own confidence in how much Russians are willing to bleed for his war. So far, Russia's recruitment drive is heavily dependent on emptying prisons and offering very generous (by Russian standards) payments to (disproportionately ethnic minority) desperate men rather than heavy-handed coercion like Ukraine does. >>9641 This is the only thing that can salvage the 21st century from massive global immiseration. Bernds better hope the tech hype around AGI/ASI is well founded. Without fooming, the world is heading to a very grim place, with or without a major global conflict.

No, wars don't take place between developed and unauthoritarian nations